Pwin

How Pwin Is Calculated

There's no single formula — Pwin is a judgment-informed estimate based on multiple factors. The Shipley methodology, widely used in GovCon, evaluates factors like:

• Customer relationship: Do you know the buyer? Have you shaped the requirement?
• Technical solution: Can you deliver exactly what they're asking for?
• Past performance: Do you have relevant, recent, and well-rated past performance?
• Competitive position: How many competitors are there, and what are their strengths?
• Price competitiveness: Can you win on price (for LPTA) or justify a premium (for best value)?
• Incumbency: Are you the incumbent, a challenger, or entering a new market?
• Teaming: Do you have the right subcontractors and partners?

Typical Pwin Ranges

Pwin Range	What It Means	Action
70%+	Strong position — you shaped the requirement, know the customer, have superior solution	Full investment in proposal
40–70%	Competitive — solid fit but facing strong competitors or unknowns	Invest if strategic, consider teaming
20–40%	Long shot — significant gaps in customer knowledge, past performance, or solution	No-bid unless strategic entry
<20%	Very unlikely — competing blind against established incumbents	No-bid

Pwin in Pipeline Management

Multiply each opportunity's estimated contract value by its Pwin to get a weighted pipeline value. A $10M opportunity at 40% Pwin contributes $4M to your weighted pipeline. This helps forecast revenue more accurately than treating every opportunity as equally likely. Smart GovCon firms maintain a pipeline with enough weighted value to cover 3–5x their revenue target.

Common Pwin Mistakes

The biggest mistake is inflating Pwin to justify pursuing opportunities that feel exciting but lack competitive substance. If you haven't spoken to the customer, don't know the competitive landscape, and aren't the incumbent, your Pwin is probably below 20% — no matter how well your capabilities match the SOW. Be honest with yourself; resources spent on low-Pwin pursuits are resources stolen from winnable ones.